φ FACTOR BLOCKER W10
BRENT ~US$108 Hormuz D64
SELIC 14.50% -25bp Apr 29
BRL R$4.95 2yr low
IPCA FOCUS 4.86% >ceiling
IS-NAT Q3 Fed. Vulnerability
INRM>>IRF ALERT
FTO PCC/CV PENDING
ELECTION 152 days
φ FACTOR BLOCKER W10
BRENT ~US$108 Hormuz D64
SELIC 14.50% -25bp Apr 29
BRL R$4.95 2yr low
IPCA FOCUS 4.86% >ceiling
IS-NAT Q3 Fed. Vulnerability
INRM>>IRF ALERT
FTO PCC/CV PENDING
ELECTION 152 days
COUTO & SILVA Intelligence · ARGUS™ Brazil Risk Monitor
φ FactorBLOCKER
Streak10 weeks
IS-NATQUAD 3
ScenarioBase 45%
Last BIB04 May 2026
10
φ Blocker weeks (record)
45%
Base scenario prob.
35%
Stress scenario prob.
20%
De-escalation prob.

Scenario probability evolution

BIB-002 → BIB-007 · 30 Mar – 04 May 2026
Base Stress De-escalation ↑ BIB-006: first Stress > Base inversion

φ Blocker streak · Brent crude · Focus IPCA

Dual axis · BIB-002 → BIB-007
φ Week Brent (US$) IPCA Focus %

Electoral dynamics — 1st round polling

Lula vs Flávio · Mar–May 2026
Lula Flávio Bolsonaro ↑ BIB-005 (Apr 15): first electoral inversion in series

Base − Stress spread

Negative = Stress > Base inversion
Stress > Base Base > Stress BIB-006 first inversion · BIB-007 mean reversion

BIB Series — Cycle 03 → 05 / 2026

BIB-002 · Cycle 0330 Mar 2026
Four Fires, One Field
φ BLOCKER W4 · Banco Master + Hormuz D31 · Copom cut W/uncertainty
Base50%
Stress30%
De-esc20%
BIB-003 · Cycle 0406 Apr 2026
Washington's Checkmate
φ BLOCKER W5 · SOFA Paraguay + Jim Jordan + FTO lobbying
Base50%
Stress35%
De-esc15%
BIB-004 · Cycle 0413 Apr 2026
The Blockade Dividend
φ BLOCKER W6 · Hormuz D44 active · 4 simultaneous vectors
Base45%
Stress40%
De-esc15%
Read insight →
BIB-005 · Cycle 0420 Apr 2026
The Money Migrates: The Political Risk Remains
φ BLOCKER W8 · Hormuz re-closed · First electoral inversion
Base45%
Stress40%
De-esc15%
BIB-006 · Cycle 0427 Apr 2026
Porto Seguro Brasil: Sob as Brumas da Ilusão
φ BLOCKER W9 · STRESS > BASE (first inversion) · Debt →100% GDP
Base40%
Stress45%
De-esc15%
BIB-007 · Cycle 05 · LATEST04 May 2026
The Silent Transition: Is Lula Adrift?
φ BLOCKER W10 (series record) · 3 institutional defeats in 48h
Base45%
Stress35%
De-esc20%
Read insight →
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contato@coutosilva.com · MIEG-SIA · RTD 1215517