The pressure this series priced as scenario risk is now the operating environment. The 25% Section 301 tariff was signed on July 15 and went live on July 22; U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly declared that "President Lula and his government did not negotiate in good faith." The Hormuz ceasefire collapsed — two U.S. soldiers were killed and Washington struck a nuclear facility under construction — and the White House opened an electoral front against Beijing in the same week China offered Brasília an alliance.

The geopolitical vector entered CRISIS. Territorial security holds Contested Control, but the political environment corrodes its durability. The market posted its first weekly loss in a month — the Ibovespa fell 2.33% on the week to 173,714, the BRL held near 5.11, and Brent gained 10% to roughly 86 — converging toward conditioned risk, still from behind the curve. Directive: ALERT — reduce exposure (sixth consecutive cycle).